Market forces rained on the parade of XL Fleet Corp. (NYSE:XL) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.
Following the downgrade, the consensus from two analysts covering XL Fleet is for revenues of US$19m in 2021, implying a chunky 13% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 76% to US$0.17. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$27m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.26 in 2021. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about XL Fleet's prospects, administering a pretty serious reduction to revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.
See our latest analysis for XL Fleet
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 25% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2021. That is a notable change from historical growth of 258% over the last year. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 13% per year. It's pretty clear that XL Fleet's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that XL Fleet's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. We wouldn't be surprised to find shareholders feeling a bit shell-shocked, after these downgrades. It looks like analysts have become a lot more bearish on XL Fleet, and their negativity could be grounds for caution.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have analyst estimates for XL Fleet going out as far as 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
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August 15, 2021 at 03:18PM
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XL Fleet Corp. (NYSE:XL) Analysts Are Reducing Their Forecasts For This Year - Yahoo Finance
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